Despite widespread attack of the White Stem Borer (WSB) pest in all growing regions, the Coffee Board, a estimates India’s coffee production for 2014-15 at a record 344,750 tonnes – an increase of 13.2 per cent over the final estimate for 2013-14.

Although the Board projected an all-time high output of 347,000 tonnes for 2013-14, the final production came down to 304,500 tonnes, with 102,200 tonnes of Arabica and 202,300 tonnes of Robusta beans. Compared to 315,500 tonnes in 2012-13, the production was down by 3.5 per cent. For the current year, the pest has already affected 50 per cent of the Arabica plantations and the production loss could be the worst ever, if the monsoon continues to play truant. The Board has projected Arabica output at 105,500 tonnes and Robusta at 239,250 tonnes for 2014-15 crop.

“Our estimates are based on the conditions that prevailed during post-blossom period in April. The blossom showers were adequate this year, though the distribution was not uniform and there was a slight delay in receiving the backing showers in certain pockets. This year is an “on-year” for Robusta crop and the conditions are very good for the crop presently. The pest could come under control if there is a very good shower in the remaining months of monsoon. However, it will be known only in September, when we come out with post-monsoon estimates,” Jawaid Akhtar, chairman, Coffee Board, told Business Standard. He said last year, the Robusta crop suffered losses due to a heavy monsoon between July and September, after two months of drought earlier in the year. However, this year, the conditions might change with the monsoon rains in July and August.

Akhtar said coffee areas were facing long dry spell, followed by blossom showers. Agreeing with the Board, Ramesh Rajah, president, Coffee Exporters’ Association, said the Robusta crop has in excellent condition and depending on how the rains continue in the remaining days, the final production would vary. As WSB is rampant this year, the production of Arabica could come down by 10,000-15,000 tonnes, he said.

Planters have expressed surprise over the estimates for the current year. “Last year was an ‘on-year’ for Arabica and still it suffered losses due to WSB initially and later with heavy monsoons. This year, it is an ‘on-year’ for Robusta. With WSB surfacing, the Arabica production at the most could be in the range of 60,000 tonnes,” said Nishant R Gurjer, former chairman, Karnataka Planters Association.

source: http://www.business-standard.com / Business Standard / Home> Markets> Commodities> Food & Edible Oils / Mahesh Kulkarni / Bangalore – July 14th, 2014